Świątek's last shot at WTA Finals starts in Ningbo as Muchová sits out

One place at the WTA Finals in Indian Wells is still up for grabs, and the woman currently holding it will not hit a ball this week. Karolina Muchová has stayed away from the BNB Ningbo Open, which got under way on Monday, handing Iga Świątek and Marta Kostyuk a clear opportunity to close the gap in the final fortnight of the regular season.

The maths: 546 and 815 points

Seven of the eight spots are already settled. Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Elina Svitolina and Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova have all booked their tickets. The last berth belongs, for now, to Muchová on 4,735 points.

Świątek sits 546 points behind on 4,189, with Kostyuk a further step back on 3,920, 815 adrift. The Czech cannot add to her total unless she changes her plans: she is not entered in Ningbo or in the season's final WTA 500 in Tokyo, which follows from 26 October. According to Spanish outlet Punto de Break, she could still ask for a late wild card at either event.

That leaves the destiny of the chasers largely in their own hands, but the margins are tight. With a WTA 500 title worth 500 ranking points, Punto de Break calculates that Świątek needs a title in one of the two events plus at least a quarter-final in the other, or two finals, provided Muchová does not play Tokyo. Kostyuk's path is steeper: she must win one tournament and reach the final of the other, or win both.

Fitness question after Wuhan

The big unknown is Świątek's body. The Pole lost to compatriot Maja Chwalińska in the Wuhan semi-finals, and Last Word on Sports noted that she was not at 100 per cent in that match. She has nonetheless kept her place in the Ningbo draw.

The draw, at least, gives her a little breathing room. As the second seed, Świątek has a first-round bye and will meet either Marie Bouzková or a qualifier in her opener. Polish portal WP SportoweFakty lists eighth seed Sorana Cîrstea, Sara Bejlek or Xiyu Wang as her potential quarter-final opponents. Kostyuk, seeded third, also starts in the second round.

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Rybakina back, Chwalińska straight back to work

The field in Ningbo has been shaped by the Finals calendar too. Rybakina, already qualified, is the top seed and returns as defending champion. Pegula and Svitolina, both safely through to Indian Wells, withdrew to prepare for the season finale, while Anna Kalinskaya pulled out injured. Leylah Fernandez, Diane Parry and Anhelina Kalinina moved into the main draw, and Fernandez immediately drew Elise Mertens in the first round, while Alexandra Eala faces Parry.

Chwalińska, meanwhile, has no time to celebrate. Fresh from her maiden title in Wuhan, which lifts her to a projected career-high No. 11 in the PIF WTA Rankings after she began last week at No. 22, the Pole opens against a qualifier. Waiting in the second round is either Jelena Ostapenko or fifth seed Belinda Bencic, a potentially awkward test after the biggest week of her career.

For Świątek, the equation is simple even if the task is not. Every round she wins in Ningbo shrinks the 546-point gap, and whatever she has not made up by Sunday must come in Tokyo, the last WTA 500 of the season, starting on 26 October.